Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Bidding Guidelines

One of the most annoying questions asked on chat is, "How much should I bid for _____?"

First, NEVER ask that question on public chat (Global, company, clan search, etc). Asking the question gives people information that you are looking to bid on an item. The answers you receive give people information about what you are likely to bid. With this information, they can watch for your bid and overbid you on it.

The best answer to, "What is the best bid?" is:

One credit and ONLY one credit more than the next highest bidder for that hour.

The problem is that you have no idea how much anyone has bid or will bid during the hour. No one can tell for sure. You might win the item for a single credit, or you might lose your bid, even if you bid hundreds of millions of credits.


One Theory on How To Price Items for Bid

Although you cannot predict a bid for a given item for a given hour, here are some guides that I have seen, based on bidding at the USA East server.

1. Some items are cheap because they are in low demand. Few people want them so they will go for relatively low amounts. Repair bots and most CPUs fall into this category. People only need to buy them once, so you can pick them up cheaply on bid. You are only bidding against other new players, so you might get them for 1,000, 10,000, or 100,000 credits.

It does not matter how much these cost in uri. You can get them on bid for low amounts.

2. Other items are in extremely high demand, because experienced players need them again and again.

These items will bid high. They include:

* LF3 Lasers
* Cloak Chips
* Jump Chips
* BO2 Shields
* Iris
* x3 Ammo
* 4k Rockets
* SAB Ammo
* Mines

Sometimes to a new player, it seems like these are impossibly expensive. I have seen that the prices for items like these are not irrational, but they seem to reach a kind of maximum value.

The maximum value seems to be related to a pretty consistent multiplier.

The Cube/BK Ratio
After watching a lot of bids, and bidding as an experienced player, I realized something:

At some point, it is not worth bidding anymore. I should just accumulate enough uridium to buy the item instead.

As an experienced player, when I wanted uri or credits, I kept coming back to the same two aliens: Cubikons and Kristillion (aka Big Kris or BKs).

BKs and cubes, interestingly, always pay credits in a certain ratio to uri: 3200:1. The number of credits and uri you receive varies, but always in that ratio.

I noticed that the maximum bids seem to be around that ratio, too. For instance, 1,000 uri worth of 3x ammo rarely went above 3 million credits. This makes sense, because I can earn the uri just as easily as the credits, and it is easier to just buy with uri than to go through bidding with credits. If there is anything else I can buy with credits, I would rather do that.

Try this on your own server, for your own items: are they going for any more than 3,200 times their price in uri?

Complications

There are times that prices seem to go above this limit. Rockets, for some reason, are sold in very small lots, next to other items that go in the millions. I see rockets go for millions of credits, when a rational price might stop around 1.5 million, based on their 500 uri cost.

Iris are extremely strange, because they cost different amounts in uri depending on how many you own. When you bid on iris, though, you pay the same price for iris #1 or iris #8. Iris bids are extremely hard to predict.

It is also possible to have enough advanced players all bidding against each other that they will drive prices above this ratio. Basically, they have nothing else to do with their credits, so they can bid whatever they want.

Anytime you have a new item enter the game, like boosters or a new goliath color, you will see experienced players compete to win these early bids. Prices will far exceed what I have put forward here, because people want the very first one. I suggest that you avoid bidding on anything new, unless perhaps you can bid before others even know it is available.

Figuring Out YOUR Credit To Uri Ratio

I think this 3,200:1 ratio is about right for most experienced players. I think that drives the 'marketplace' in Dark Orbit.

It should not drive your own buying though. Figure out what ratio you find acceptable. Based on how easily you can collect uri in bonus boxes, aliens and quests, vs. how easily you can get credits, decide how much you are willing to bid.

Personally, I set my ratio around 2,000:1. I do not want to pay more than 2,000 credits for each uri of value. By collecting bonus boxes, I get enough uri when hunting BKs, that I think my ratio is more like 2,000:1 than 3,200:1.

Use that ratio when deciding whether to bid. I used my ratio to decide that I would rather buy LF3s with uri than bid on them. Iris made sense for bidding after iris #4. Most of the CPUs made much more sense to bid on.

You have a choice about whether to earn credits or earn uri. Make an intelligent choice.

I hope this helps you figure out your own bidding strategies.


By the way, note that my ratios are several thousands of credits to one uri. In the 'Credits' area you only get 10 credits for each uri you convert. I hope this convinces all of you to never, ever convert uri into credits!

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